Can Botafogo’s home record answer Atletico-MG’s table advantage?

Can Botafogo’s home record offset Atletico-MG’s table advantage? The evidence is mixed: Botafogo’s home record this Serie A season is 6 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, while Atletico-MG’s away record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. They meet at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos on Thursday, November 5, at 00:30 UTC.

A 11-point gap before round 34

The pre-match table places Atletico-MG seventh with 50 points from 33 games, while Botafogo are 12th with 39 points from 33 games. Atletico-MG therefore lead by 11 points. The result will be added to a table in which Flamengo lead with 73 points; Botafogo trail the leaders by 34 points and Atletico-MG by 23.

Home scoring against away resistance

Botafogo have scored 26 goals in their home games this season, averaging 1.60 per home game, and conceded 22, averaging 1.40. They have kept 4 home clean sheets. Atletico-MG have scored 17 goals away, averaging 1.10 per away game, conceded 21, averaging 1.30, and kept 3 away clean sheets.

Both teams most often use 4-2-3-1: Botafogo used it in 18 matches and Atletico-MG in 12. Botafogo will be without J. Barrera, Danilo Santos and Kaio Pantaleao; Arthur Chaves is questionable and listed as inactive. Atletico-MG are missing T. Borbas, M. Cassierra, Fred, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi.

At kickoff, can Botafogo turn their stronger home record into enough attacking output against an Atletico-MG side that sits higher in the pre-match table?